During a recent week in Oslo, I had the opportunity to talk with a variety of actors in government, defense industry, finance, military, and old friends.  Perspectives seem to have evolved since my last visit about a year earlier.  More worry about Russia, China, and the United States.

A few observations:

Norway is downrange.  The war with Putin’s Russia is present in Norway.  The conflict is taking place in Norway and in its territorial waters.  In American jargon, going downrange means traveling to the conflict zone somewhere else.  In Norway, you feel the conflict in your own backyard.  The hybrid war that is discussed academically in Washington is at hand in Oslo.  Cyberattacks, subsea cable cuttings, sea and airspace penetrations, aggressive intelligence operations, drones buzzing offshore oil platforms, etc. are all in a normal day for Oslo. China is ever present looking to expand business and “sitting on a hill watching tigers fight”. 

Norway is vulnerable.  At its northern point, in the increasingly strategic north, Norway shares a border with Russia and has territorial disputes especially regarding the Svalbard archipelago.  Russia was funneling migrants into Norway (and other countries) across their border.  Norway has been pointing to the growing threats in the far north while the US was preoccupied with the global war on terror. It is not only Russia—though Russia is most blatant, but also the Chinese.  Only lately has the US realized the strategic importance of the region—both with respect to northern sea routes, space tracking and access, undersea traffic, etc.  Joint exercises are now more regular, including in the Arctic.  When I was in Oslo, CVN-75 Harry Truman made a port call in Oslo following joint maneuvers with the UK.  

Norway is increasing its defense budget.  The NATO target is 2% of GDP for defense.  Norway has been consistent in meeting this goal and recently exceeding it substantially.  Their current long Term Defense Plan anticipates doubling the Defense budget over the next 12 years.  Former Norwegian PM Jens Stoltenberg just completed a critical 10-year stint as Secretary General of NATO.  He dealt with Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and drove NATO members to rally against this threat.  Norway has acquired a fleet of F-35s. P-8 ASW aircraft and assorted other initiatives.  Besides resources, Norway has skills to offer–a former SEAL credited their Arctic training very highly. Still, like the Baltic countries, it is very vulnerable to Russia and China–especially if the backing of the US or NATO is wobbly.

Norwegian fears.  Norway was a founding member of NATO and was the only NATO member to have a direct border with Russia throughout the cold war.  They know the risks presented by Russia (and others).   The essence of NATO security derives from the commitment of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty—i.e. an attack against one is an attack against all.  NATO now has 32 members with the recent addition of Finland and Sweden.  Some of these countries are very small (Iceland, Luxembourg, and Montenegro all have fewer than 1 million population).  Some are vulnerable for various internal reasons (North Macedonia, Hungary, perhaps others).  How solid is the NATO commitment?  That is a question that Putin is testing every day of his so-called Hybrid war.  

Earlier this year, there was a Russian-backed attempt to assassinate the head of Rheinmetall, a German firm producing 155mm artillery shells for Ukraine.  It was reported that Germany wanted to downplay the matter for fear of having to confront the reality of a Russian attack.  A fear expressed in Oslo was, what happens if Putin decides to take a little nibble out of Estonia (for example)?  Will NATO respond under Article 5?  Or will NATO resolve slowly erode? Stoltenberg was quite vigorous on the unity of Chapter 5.  However, not everyone in Norway is willing to risk their comfortable lives when Russia may offer Oslo separate assurances.  Norway reportedly has the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund and Norwegians live well from its unperturbed growth. 

And then there is China. In discussions with various people about the influx on Chinese electronics, communications, shipping, and the associated cyber risks, some shared the US view that responding to this was vitally important …perhaps to be polite.  However, others quite candidly stated it was too late to limit the threats of China’s looming dominance in several commercial and technological fields.  Since my last visit, multiple slick Chinese automobile showrooms have popped up in the most desirable retail blocks of Oslo.  It’s worth noting that Norway was very early in offering large government incentives for Tesla cars to address climate change concerns (or perhaps offset guilt from sustaining such a high standard of living from pumping oil). They were a critical first mover in supporting Tesla’s EV production.  Now China is on well on the way to supplanting them. And sucking up all the associated data and having a deployed vehicle fleet subject to manipulation from China.

Norway is the canary in the coal mine.  Norway is clearly a target for both Russia and China.  They have an outsized role in the west given their strategic location and resources.  Their population of about 5 million can be influenced like any other country through social media, threats and rewards. China shows skill and offering pain or pleasure in trade.  Watch Norway to see how Putin’s threats/rewards shape attitudes.  And watch China’s more subtle influence grow in Norway and the Arctic overall. The former and future President Trump has said good things about Norway.  Norway has been a resilient leader through thought and actions for the rest of Europe.  We need them.  They need to know we will be resolute.