President Obama has publicly warned that any use by Syria of chemical weapons would have consequences. Reportedly US intelligence shows that CW related materials have been moved. It is unclear from the outside whether this indicates Syria has taken steps to load liquid agent into weapons warheads, or dispersed weapons away from their normal storage bases, or some other change to their status. However, assuming the intelligence is not a misinterpretation, or that Syria is not intentionally spoofing to test US collection capacity, then a couple of points are clear.

One, Syria would know that any movements, indeed any change in the facilities known to house CW-related weapons and materials (including chemical precursors and other associated components) would be seen by the US and others. A decision to move these items could only imply a decision to send a signal–an agressive one at that.

Second, the statement by President Obama while directed at Bashir, could have been more useful if it had explicitly stated that consequences would fall on anyone who implemented decisions to use CW. Senior officers should be deterred by knowledge that after the war, and the war will end, that charges and punishment will be levied on those who engaged in WMD use. Syrians will remember what happened to Iraqis. the US should be seeking to separate the interests of the senior military from the interests of Bashir. Clearly, many senior Syrians have defected. This is an effective strategy.

Finally, CW is not an effective weapon for military purposes in the conflict currently underway in Syria. It would however have a terrorizing effect on the population and could (as Saddam attempted to do in Kurdistan in the 1980’s) separate the local population from the opposition. But the international outrage should be clearly seen to offset any advantage. But who knows how Bashir calculates? We have no clue.

The Iranian dimension of this facet of the Syrian conflict is also very murky. Iran is reported to have provided some precursor materials over the years. Possibly they provided some expertise. Iran may be concerned that if Bashir falls then the connections with Iran will be broadly known, with potential damage to Tehran. Again, this is an area where we have no idea of the facts and dynamics, but it is clear that such factors are important.

To state an obvious risk, even if the government does not use the CW it may be moving, once moved out of the relative security of the bases it has been stored, it becomes more susceptible to capture or loss to one of the number of players–Hezbollah, al Qaeda, or others. This is a huge risk and Obama and others should be pressing Bashir not just to avoid using CW, but to keep it secure. Maybe this is in fact a thought by Bashir. Again, we have no clue.

One other reminder. Syria is reported to have biological agent as well. This, in the long run, could be more troubling if it got loose. Stay tuned.