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Author Archives: Charles Duelfer
Global Shipping: Can New Technology Leapfrog China’s Dominance?
I recently participated in a Council on Foreign Relations Task Force on Space. It concluded, not surprisingly, that the US must prioritize all elements of US space development or risk ceding leadership to China. The world now depends on space assets for … Continue reading
Posted in Allies, China, Global Shipping, Industrial Policy, Maritime Dominance
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DOGE and State Department
I would recommend anyone seeking to reduce the federal budget to begin by examining agency phone books—over time. I spent several years at State Department in the 1980’s and compared the 1984 annual directory (https://archive.org/details/telephonedirecto1984wash/page/n1/mode/2up?view=theater) to the current directory (https://www.state.gov/telephone-directory/). Note: … Continue reading
Posted in Defense Budget, DOGE, Intelligence, State Department
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Global Tensions Seen from Oslo
During a recent week in Oslo, I had the opportunity to talk with a variety of actors in government, defense industry, finance, military, and old friends. Perspectives seem to have evolved since my last visit about a year earlier. More worry … Continue reading
Posted in China, NATO, Putin, Russia, Space
Tagged China, NATO, Norway, Norwegian Defense, Russia, Stoltenberg, Ukraine
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Houthis in Space, or: Ruining it for All Mankind
The acceleration of commercial, military and scientific space activities in recent years has been astonishing. Technology has evolved to point where space-based activities are demonstrably very lucrative. Satellites in low earth orbit are increasing exponentially (really, see chart below). Launch costs have plummeted and capabilities … Continue reading
Israel and Iran – Remember 1991 Iraq
In January 1991 I happened to be running the task force in the State Department Operations Center set up for Desert Storm. President George H. W. Bush had gone to enormous effort to assemble a coalition of over 30 countries to … Continue reading
Posted in Allies, Chemical Weapons, Gaza, Gaza,Hamas, Israel, Iran, Iraq, Israel, nuclear weapons
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A Houthi State on Bab al-Mandab?
Can the UN Security Council accept a settlement of the Yemen conflict which does not mandate adherence to Freedom of Navigation? It appears the Houthi leadership in Sana’a aspires to be to the Bab al-Mandab, as Egypt is to the … Continue reading
Gaza: Tunnel Warfare or “Subterranean Operations”
“Mr. President, we cannot allow a mineshaft gap!” exclaimed General “Buck” Turgidson, in the 1964 film “Dr. Strangelove”. The public was not prepared. The casual observer of news videos showing relentless Israeli bombing in Gaza can readily wonder if it is disproportionate to … Continue reading
Posted in Chemical Weapons, Gaza, Gaza,Hamas, Israel, ISIS, Israel, Syria CW
Tagged Gaza, Hamas, Israel.
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US Leadership:
Informal conversations with foreign friends and allies usually turn to the question of the coming 2024 election. Our friends and allies have a stake in the direction and constancy of the United States. I deeply value allies and would like … Continue reading
Posted in Allies, NATO, nuclear weapons, Russia, WMD
Tagged Allies, Biden, NATO, Russia
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Things to Consider: Iraq War at 20
Everyone (and their dog) is writing/commenting about the Iraq war 20 years later. I doubt more accuracy is achieved in these tales after 20 years. Everyone seems to think they were central to events. Some of them were.[1] My perspective was also partial, … Continue reading
Posted in Allies, Chemical Weapons, Intelligence, Iran, Iraq, Sunni, Syria CW, United Nations, WMD
Tagged Intelligence, Iran, Iraq, Iraq Survey Group, Iraq War, Saddam Hussein, United Nations, WMD
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Death of Choice – Aymen al-Zawahiri
The US “took the shot” on 31 July that killed Aymen al-Zawahiri, the identified leader of Al-Qaeda. Zawahiri had been hunted by the US since the 9-11. It took a decade to find and kill Osama bin Laden. It took … Continue reading